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My Trump Prediction

If you write, talk, watch, listen, appear, speak, or think about politics in the 2016 cycle, you can’t go more than 23 seconds without the words “Donald Tump” showing up.

It doesn’t matter whether you are for him or against him, like him or hate him, agree with him or oppose him, he is there.

As the Kinks sang in 1965 “All Day and All of the Night.”

We are now within hailing distance of the 2016 caucuses and primaries.

I think we do this every four years, but the plural of caucus is not caucii. Caucus is not a Greek word it is an American Indian word. According to it is from the “Mid 18th century,perhaps from Algonquian cau’-cau’-as’u,‘adviser’.”

So, the plural of caucus is caucuses.

I have been wrong about Trump every single time I have had the opportunity to make a prediction, beginning with my prediction that he wouldn’t run.

When he made his announcement in mid-June, I confidently predicted he was a “novelty act” and would soon be cast aside by voters as they became more serious. Every time he said something outrageous after that I confidently predicted THAT would prove to be enough for GOP voters.

I’ve been wrong. A couple of weeks ago I was on TV, again confidently predicting something regarding Trump. The host pointed out that most people were hedging on their predictions. I said, “They must think they have their reputations to protect. I’ve been wrong so often I have no reputation left.”

Although the Iowa Caucuses will not be held until February 1, I can no longer pretend to have any idea what will happen.

The latest poll, paid for by CBS and the NY Times, shows Trump extending his lead to 35 percent of Republicans. Ted Cruz has slipped into second place at 16 percent. Ben Carson is third with 13 percent, Marco Rubio had 9 percent and Bush came in with just 3 percent of the nationwide vote.

Both CBS and the Times are careful to point out that the poll was “taken largely before his statements to temporarily bar Muslims from entering the United States,” so we’ll have to wait and see what effect that might have on his standing.

If, as Shakespeare wrote in The Tempest, “the past is prologue,” then those comments will only serve to harden the battle lines between pro- and anti- Trump voters and will solidify his standing atop the GOP candidates.

Maybe that prediction will be wrong, too.

 if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet, and the people are not warned, and the sword comes and takes any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood I will require at the watchman’s hand.


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