America is no longer going to manage to hold the world together, much less to lead it. The concept of world order is an empty promise taking into account Russia, China and other powers.
You don’t need to be mad to go up for this office, “but it helps.” That has been for a long time and still is the ironic salutation of the future U.S. president.
The most serious warning against becoming president was expressed by Brent Scowcroft, former Air Force lieutenant general and national security advisor under George Bush senior, in his forward to the “Global Risk 2035” report by the highly renowned Atlantic Council: “The task for the next president, whoever it might be, will be tougher than for any previous administration.”
This no-nonsense analysis begins and ends with the insight that “world order” will soon only be an empty phrase, that Russia will succeed the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China will pursue Pacific supremacy.
Cyberspace is opening up new, orderless worlds, hybrid wars and suffering refugees, and the combination of these is bothering Europe. The United States, yesterday “the sole surviving superpower” and global democratic arsenal, is overwhelmed by the enforcement of these global traffic regulations.
The holy reverence in which nuclear weapons in all their forms have been held, including in North Korea, is no longer effective. Russia’s generals and politicians are unmistakably debating nuclear war. Disarmament and arms control belong in the past.
The New War Started a Long Time Ago
The long-term nuclear peace, which kept the cold war cold and predictable and whose most important requirement was extended deterrence across the Atlantic and the Pacific using nuclear superpower, is losing its effectiveness.
Those who are warning of a new cold war are overlooking the fact that this started long ago, but using a different script than was used 60 or 70 years ago.
The new White House government, once it is installed – which, according to experience, can take many months – will not be afforded a hundred day break by the rest of the world.
Russia is using Eastern Ukraine and Syria to show how this period of crippling excitement about the election and change of office in the U.S. can be used for all and sundry fait accompli. Turkey, an ally of NATO, is sending conflicting signals in all directions.
The Europeans are holding their breath and should have realized a lot earlier that the era of the American Europe-First strategy is long gone, that Russia is continuing to test the West – today in Eastern Europe and tomorrow at the Black Sea – and that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is missing a sustainable strategy for containment.
America votes, Europe must live with the result.